Vice President Kamala Harris’s defeat by Donald J. Trump in the recent election has been attributed to a significant drop in voter turnout for Democrats compared to the previous election. A New York Times analysis of preliminary election data reveals that counties that typically lean Democratic delivered 1.9 million fewer votes for Harris than they did for Biden in 2020. Conversely, Republican-heavy counties saw an increase of 1.2 million votes for Trump.
This decline in turnout was evident across various demographics and economic factors, including areas with high job growth rates, job losses, and high percentages of college-educated voters. Traditionally strong Democratic groups, such as Black Christians and Jewish voters, also showed reduced turnout. The drop-off in key cities like Detroit and Philadelphia made it challenging for Harris to secure victories in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.
This decrease in voter turnout marks a significant shift for Democrats, who had been mobilized by Trump’s victory in 2016 and had shown strong turnout in subsequent elections. The analysis suggests that while Trump may have won the election by energizing his base and persuading skeptics, many Democrats were dissuaded from voting for either candidate. The data paints a complex picture of the election results, indicating that Trump’s victory may not indicate a resounding endorsement of his agenda.
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